What an hour of the day is worth
Hours repeated
10.7%
of markets, against 1.6% by chance
Chaos-quoted
+1.74%
median out of sample, 70% profitable
Divine-quoted
0.00%
median out of sample, 46% profitable
Roughly a hundred chaos-quoted markets carry this and pay about 1.7% on a median day, seventy percent of the time. Divine-quoted markets have profiles just as stable and no amplitude worth taking: zero out of sample, profitable less often than a coin. The top of the list reaches twenty percent, which is where the work is.
328 markets deep enough to profile
| Market | Buy → sell | Out of sample | Whole window | Hours held | Cause | Div / hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0h→8hUTC | 29.5% | 27.3% | moved | chaos clock | 173.4 | |
| 22h→8hUTC | 28.0% | 21.5% | held | chaos clock | 151.6 | |
| 8h→22hUTC | 27.1% | 29.2% | moved | chaos clock | 111.3 | |
| 9h→22hUTC | 23.4% | 18.7% | moved | chaos clock | 353.5 | |
| 11h→1hUTC | 23.2% | 33.5% | moved | chaos clock | 573.2 | |
| 6h→0hUTC | 18.7% | 17.6% | moved | its own | 145.1 | |
| 7h→23hUTC | 16.1% | 23.6% | moved | chaos clock | 85.6 | |
| 10h→1hUTC | 15.5% | 22.4% | moved | chaos clock | 3.7k | |
| 0h→7hUTC | 15.4% | 17.4% | moved | chaos clock | 481.7 | |
| 5h→18hUTC | 15.3% | 18.9% | moved | its own | 143.9 |